Science Council: COVID-19 infections must be kept to a minimum

Tallinn, Stenbock House, 31 March 2020 – According to the COVID-19 Science Council, the measures taken by Estonia to control the spread of the virus have been effective and the number of new cases has remained stable, similar to the Nordic countries. In order to make sure that the hospital system is able to cope with the epidemic, it is vital to keep the number of new infections to a minimum.

Professor Irja Lutsar of the Institute of Biomedicine and Translational Medicine of the University of Tartu presented the opinions of the Science Council at today’s meeting of the government committee on the response to the COVID-19 virus.

“There is currently no exponential increase of infections and the spread of infection is similar to that in the Nordic countries,” said Professor Lutsar. “It is of utmost importance that we keep the amount of person-to-person contacts to a minimum – we can clearly see that this works.”

“If people comply with the restrictions, projections show that the disease can be kept under control and the hospital system will be able to handle it,” she said.

Irja Lutsar stated that the crisis of the coronavirus is likely to change our behaviour. “We probably need to learn from the experience of Asian countries and start wearing masks in crowded places to prevent the spread of viruses. This may become a behavioural norm that is widely accepted by the society.”

The working group of virologists and physicians is also working on the principles of a medical exit strategy from the epidemic. The scientists emphasise that the choice of exit strategy can only be based on studies that show how much of the population has actually been exposed to the coronavirus.

“The coronavirus is spreading in Estonia at a time when a significant part of the population is suffering from other viral diseases with similar symptoms. That is why we need research as extensive as possible into how many people have been infected with COVID-19. It would give us important information concerning the frequency and dynamics of the spread of the disease,” said Professor Lutsar.

In addition to Professor Irja Lutsar, the COVID-19 Science Council includes Kristi Rüütel, Senior Research Fellow of the National Institute for Health Development, Peep Talving, Medical Director of the North Estonia Medical Centre and Professor of Surgical Diseases at the University of Tartu, Pilleriin Soodla, Doctor of Infectious Diseases at Tartu University Hospital, and Andres Merits, Professor-Researcher of Applied Virology at the University of Tartu. Krista Fischer, Professor of Mathematical Statistics of the University of Tartu, is helping the Science Council compile forecasting models.

The work of the Science Council is organised by the Strategy Unit of the Government Office, which is also working on drawing up a comprehensive coronavirus crisis exit strategy.